Systemise Decarbonisation
The maritime industry is obsessed with the wrong question. We keep asking which molecule will "win" the fuel race, as if decarbonisation were a simple commodity trade.
It isn't. Shipping doesn’t just buy fuel; it builds fuel systems.
A molecule alone is an asset without an ecosystem. To move from a pilot project to a scalable market, every fuel must become FIRM:
F – Fuel Supply: Is the molecule available at the right volume and a viable price?
I – Infrastructure: Are the physical links i.e. ports, bunker vessels, storage and procedures etc. ready?
R – Rules: Are the safety operations, port acceptance, handling frameworks available?
M – Measurement: Do the emissions claims stand up under FuelEU, ETS, RED and audit?
When one pillar is missing, the transition stalls. When all four move, the market compounds.
What "FIRM" looks like in 2026:
We are seeing this play out right now, away from the headlines:
Infrastructure & Rules: The Port of Barcelona is moving into commercial tenders for methanol bunkering. This isn't just a "strategy"; it’s the hard work of codifying safety procedures and operational liabilities.
Infrastructure & Fuel: Singapore is industrialising LNG bunkering at scale. Recent milestones from FueLNG and Shell show that LNG has moved past the hype into a high-repetition, low-friction industrial reality.
Rules & Measurement: The International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) has just released updated Unified Requirements (UR M78 and UR H2) for ammonia. These are the mandatory pre-conditions for finance and port acceptance. Without the "R," the "F" never leaves the dock.
The Bottom Line
Stop betting on molecules; start building systems.
A fuel is only as viable as its weakest pillar. If it isn't FIRM, it isn't a solution. It’s a stranded-asset risk. The winners of this transition won't be the ones who picked the "right" fuel, but the ones who built the most complete systems.
